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Churchill Best, Brown Worst As Britons Assess Their Prime Ministers

Winston Churchill remains a revered political figure in Britain, while a majority of respondents consider Gordon Brown as a bad head of government, new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of 2,025 British adults asked respondents to say whether the 13 politicians who have lived at 10 Downing Street since the end of the Second World War have been “good� or “bad.�

Three-in-five Britons (74%) think Churchill was a good prime minister, while only six per cent believe he was bad. Almost half of respondents (47%) think Margaret Thatcher was a good head of government, but 40 per cent believe she was bad.

Along with Churchill and Thatcher, three other British prime ministers managed to get a larger proportion of “good� responses than “bad� responses: Harold Wilson (37% to 18%), Harold Macmillan (28% to 12%) and Clement Attlee (21% to 10%).

At least two-in-five respondents believe three of the last four British prime ministers have been bad: David Cameron (44%), John Major (45%), and Tony Blair (48%).

The lowest ranked head of government is Gordon Brown, with the proportion of negative reviews outranking positive ones by a 3-to-1 margin (65% to 19%).

Consult our September 2009 survey on Prime Ministers.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 22 to January 23, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,009 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Canadians Support Non-Combat Role for Troops in Afghanistan

Most Canadians are in favour of their government’s decision to keep soldiers in Afghanistan to help train the local military, but many also believe this mission should not be extended beyond 2014, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,001 Canadian adults, 40 per cent of respondents believe Canada made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan in 2002, while 36 per cent think Canada did the right thing.

The federal government’s decision to keep 950 soldiers in Afghanistan until 2014 in a strictly non-combat role to help train the Afghan military is endorsed by a majority of Canadians (54%), including two thirds of respondents in British Columbia and Alberta (66%).

However, about three-in-five respondents (58%) disagree with extending Canada’s non-combat role after 2014.

Across Canada, two thirds of respondents (65%) disagree with the assertion that Afghanistan will never again become a safe haven for international terrorism, and a similar proportion (69%) believe the war in Afghanistan was not worth the human and financial toll.

Quebecers are more likely to call the mission in Afghanistan a mistake (52%), to disagree with an extension of Canada’s non-combat role (67%), and to state that the war was not worth the human and financial toll (77%).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 27 to January 28, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,001 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Most Americans Reject the Use of Torture on Terrorism Suspects

People in the United States hold differing views on various foreign policy principles, but only a third are ready to justify the torture of terrorism suspects, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,008 American adults, half of respondents (50%) agree with the notion that the U.S. Government should continue to be the global leader to solve international disputes, while two-in-five (41%) disagree.

The proportion of Democrats and Republicans who endorse the continuation of this role for the United States is exactly the same (54%), while Independents are not as convinced about this idea (43%).

The Use of Force and Regime Change

The political divergence is more evident in a question related to the U.S. Government only using force against another nation with authorization from the United Nations (UN). Half of all Americans (50%)—and 49 per cent of Independents—agree with this principle, but Democrats are far more likely to endorse it (63%) than Republicans (37%).

Almost half of Americans (48%) agree with the notion that the U.S. Government should overthrow dictatorships and change regimes if it believes they pose an imminent threat. The views of Democrats (45%) and Independents (44%) are nuanced, while three-in-five Republicans (59%) approve this foreign policy principle.

Torture

Only one third of Americans (34%) believe the U.S. Government should rely on torture to gain information from terrorism suspects. Democrats (24%) are less likely than Independents (37%) and Republicans (45%) to reject this idea.

Analysis

Following the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Americans appear to be becoming more “dovish” when assessing the potential reach of their federal government in the global stage. Half of respondents want the U.S. to remain the global leader to solve international disputes, but the same proportion also believe force should only be used against another nation in the context of a UN mandate.

A slightly lower number of Americans endorse “regime change” in the event of an imminent threat from a dictatorship, but the idea of using torture to gain information from terrorism suspects is only supported by a third of respondents.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 27 to January 28, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,008 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Dix Surpasses Clark as Best Choice for Premier in British Columbia

Opposition leader Adrian Dix has surpassed incumbent Premier Christy Clark as the person British Columbians would like to see in charge of the provincial government, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample of 800 British Columbian adults also shows that the New Democratic Party (NDP) has extended its advantage over the governing BC Liberals, who have dropped to their lowest level since Clark took over from Gordon Campbell as party leader.

Political Scene

Across British Columbia, 42 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since November) will support the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election, followed by the BC Liberals with 28 per cent (-3), the BC Conservatives with 19 per cent (+1) and the BC Greens with 10 per cent (+2).

Half of decided voters in Vancouver Island (51%) and two-in-five in Metro Vancouver (42%) would vote for the NDP in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives have reached the 20 per cent mark in both Metro Vancouver and the Interior. The BC Liberals are now second to the NDP among men (32% to 37%) and the gap with female voters is becoming wider, with the NDP ahead among women by 23 points (47% to 24%). The governing party post its best results with respondents aged 55 and over (31%, still nine points behind the NDP).

While the NDP is holding on to practically nine-in-ten of its voters in 2009 (88%), the BC Liberals can only count on the support of three-in-five of their supporters in the last provincial ballot (60%). One-in-four BC Liberal voters in 2009 (27%) are now supporting the BC Conservatives and one-in-ten (10%) are choosing the NDP.

Issues, Approval and Momentum

The economy is regarded as the most important issue facing British Columbia by 27 per cent of respondents (-2), followed by health care (21%, +4), leadership (7%), poverty (also 7%), tax relief (6%) and the environment (6%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberals leader Christy Clark is 40 per cent (+1). Official Opposition and NDP leader Adrian Dix improved to 45 per cent (+5). Green Party leader Jane Sterk (25%, +4) and BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins (23%, +4) hold lower numbers, but show positive progress since November.

On the preferred premier question, Dix is the top choice for the first time (26%, +7 since November), followed by Clark (22%, -3), Cummins (8%, -1) and Sterk (3%, +1). Dix continues to be the only provincial party leader able to post a positive momentum score (+6), while Cummins (-2), Sterk (-6) and Clark (-24) had negative numbers once again.

On issues, the advantages of the BC Liberal incumbent have narrowed dramatically. Clark and Dix are virtually tied as being the best person to deal with the economy (24% to 23%) and crime (19% to 20%). Clark is ahead on federal/provincial relations (27% to 21%), but Dix is the clear leader on health care (33% to 20%) and education (30% to 21%). Sterk is regarded as the best leader to deal with the environment (26%, with Dix second at 22%).

Analysis

The last time the BC Liberals dropped below the 30 per cent mark in voting intention, Gordon Campbell was about to deliver his resignation speech in early November 2010. The governing party is now losing a quarter of its electors in 2009 to the BC Conservatives, and Clark has lost her edge on issues like crime and the economy, which her predecessor used to dominate, even at the pinnacle of his unpopularity.

The BC Conservatives are slowly getting closer to the 20 per cent mark at the provincial level, and are gaining ground in Metro Vancouver and the Interior. Still, their leader is not particularly well-known at this stage and is not carrying any significant momentum on issues.

The NDP holds the same level of support it had in the last provincial election, but Dix is now regarded as the best person to head the government in Victoria. The survey also shows that the NDP base appears satisfied with the decision to bring in a new leader. Dix’s predecessor Carole James was not able to be seen as a premier-in-waiting even after the controversy that led to Campbell’s resignation.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 27 to January 29, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 800 randomly selected British Columbia adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of British Columbia. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Canadians Are Divided on the Actual Effect of Immigration

People in Canada are split when assessing immigration, and only three-in-ten believe the country should continue to be a mosaic, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,005 Canadian adults, 39 per cent of respondents believe that immigration is having a positive effect in Canada, while 39 per cent think it is having a negative effect.

Views on Legal and Illegal Immigration

Since September 2010, the proportion of Canadians who think immigration is having a positive effect in the country has increased by five points. Respondents aged 18-to-34 are more likely to regard immigration in a positive light (48%) than middle-aged Canadians (33%) and those over the age of 55 (39%).

Two-in-five Canadians (41%) think the number of legal immigrants who are allowed to relocate in Canada should decrease, including almost half of respondents aged 35-to-54 (46%).

The views of Canadians on illegal immigration have hardened over the past 14 months. Half of respondents (50%, +6 since September 2010) believe illegal immigrants in Canada take jobs away from Canadian workers. In addition, only 23 per cent of respondents would allow illegal immigrants to stay in Canada and eventually apply for citizenship, while 50 per cent think illegal immigrants should be required to leave their jobs and be deported.

Multiculturalism

Three-in-five Canadians (62%) think multiculturalism has been good for the country, including 72 per cent of respondents aged 18-to-34. However, more Canadians (58%) are likely to endorse the concept of the melting pot—immigrants assimilating and blending into Canadian society—than the mosaic (30%), where cultural differences within society are valuable and should be preserved.

At least one-in-four respondents believe Canada is an intolerant society towards Muslims (33%), Aboriginal Canadians (28%) and immigrants from South Asia, such as India and Pakistan (25%). A third of Canadians (32%) believe that racism is a significant problem in Canada, while 55 per cent disagree with this view.

Analysis

The proportion of Canadians who believe immigration is having a negative effect in the country is the lowest in the past four years. The main source of hostility appears to be illegal immigration, with half of Canadians calling for unlawful workers to return to their country of origin. This level of support for the deportation of illegal immigrants is 11 points lower than what was observed in Britain in December 2011, but seven points higher than in the United States in December 2010.

Younger Canadians are more likely to back the idea of a “path to citizenship� for illegal workers, but sizeable majorities of middle-aged and older respondents reject this idea.

The positive views on multiculturalism drop markedly with age, from 72 per cent for those aged 18-to-34, to 63 per cent among those aged 35-to-54, and to 50 per cent for those over the age of 55. Middle-aged and older Canadians are also more likely to support the concept of the melting pot than the mosaic.

Review our September 2010 and November 2010 surveys on immigration and multiculturalism.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 26 to January 27, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Legal Euthanasia Supported by Majority in Great Britain

Most people in Britain continue to endorse the idea of legalising euthanasia in the country, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 2,014 British adults, 71 per cent of respondents (+4 since October 2010) are in favour of legalising euthanasia in the United Kingdom, while 16 per cent (-3) oppose this idea.

More than four-in-five Britons (86%) believe that legalising euthanasia would give people who are suffering an opportunity to ease their pain, and three-in-four (78%) think it would establish clearer guidelines for doctors to deal with end-of-life decisions.

Respondents are evenly divided on whether the legalisation of euthanasia would leave vulnerable people without sufficient legal protection (Agree 42%, Disagree 42%), but three-in-five (61%) reject the notion that it would send the message that the lives of the sick or disabled are less valuable

In 2000, Heather Pratten of Essex pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting the suicide of her terminally ill son, Nigel, who suffered from Huntington’s disease. Judge Graham Boal gave Pratten a conditional discharge instead of immediate imprisonment, due to the “exceptional circumstances� of the case.

A majority of Britons (57%) believe that, if a parent is found guilty of assisting a terminally ill son or daughter to die, there should be no penalty at all. Support for this course of action is decidedly higher among respondents over the age of 55 (65%).

In addition, three-in-five Britons (60%) believe that people who help a person to commit suicide should not be prosecuted.

Consult our January 2010 and October 2010 surveys on euthanasia in Britain.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 13 to January 16, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,014 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Most Americans Would Ban Drivers from Using Hand Held Cell Phones

Most Americans agree with the idea of preventing drivers from using hand held cell phones while they are behind the wheel, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,003 American adults, four-in-five respondents (81%) support implementing a federal regulation that would ban the use of hand held cell phones while driving.

The proportion of Americans who would endorse a federal ban on text messaging while driving is higher (92%). However, only 38 per cent of respondents would support a federal regulation that would ban the use of cell phone hands free devices (such as Bluetooth or headsets) while driving.

Analysis

Texting is definitely regarded as a dangerous activity for drivers, with only seven per cent of Americans believing that this practice should be allowed to continue. There are some subtle differences in the way specific age groups feel about drivers using cell phones. While most respondents agree that the use of hand held devices by drivers should not be allowed, Americans aged 18-to-34 are more likely to disagree with this notion (24%) than those aged 35-to-54 (17%) and those over the age of 55 (11%).

When it comes to hands free devices, there is a clear age gap. A majority of Americans over the age of 55 (53%) would ban their use by drivers, but this notion is only supported by about three-in-ten respondents aged 35-to-54 (32%) and aged 18-to-34 (28%).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 18 to January 19, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,003 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Canadians Call for Legislation to Deal with Gender-Based Abortion

Canadians are questioning the country’s lack of legal restrictions on pregnancy termination, and a majority is calling for a regulation that would deal with the use of abortion as a means of gender selection, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,001 Canadian adults, 51 per cent of respondents believe there should be laws which outline when a woman can have an abortion in Canada. Conversely, 37 per cent of Canadians think there should be no laws on this matter and want women to have the unrestricted right to have an abortion at any time up to the moment of birth.

Among the most populated provinces, Alberta (59%) has the highest proportion of respondents who want to establish abortion laws, while two-in-five Quebecers (40%) would not make any changes. More than half of Conservative and Liberal voters in the 2011 federal election (57% and 52% respectively) call for regulations, while Green Party and New Democratic Party (NDP) voters (51% and 47% respectively) disagree with this notion.

Earlier this month, Rajendra Kale, editor-in-chief of the Canadian Medical Journal (CMAJ), suggested in an editorial that a fetus’s gender should not be revealed to expecting parents until after 30 weeks of pregnancy, in order to prevent female feticide.

Across the country, three-in-five Canadians (60%)—and two-thirds of women (66%)—believe there should be laws which outline whether a woman can have an abortion based solely on the gender of the fetus. Three-in-ten respondents (30%) think a woman should have the unrestricted right to have an abortion in any circumstance.

It is important to note that, while there is a noticeable dissimilarity between supporters of specific political parties on the overall question of abortion laws, a majority of people who voted for each one of the five major parties in 2011 believe that there should be a regulation to deal with gender-based abortion.

Review our August 2010 survey on abortion.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 19 to January 20, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,001 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Americans Certify Second Amendment, Divided Over Gun Laws

Most people in the United States agree on the meaning of the Second Amendment, and half endorse the “shall-issue� prerogative to carry concealed weapons in public, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,009 American adults, 85 per cent of respondents believe that the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution means that individuals have the right to keep and bear arms, while only seven per cent openly disagree with this view.

The interpretation of the Second Amendment is similar across party lines and among both gun owners and people who do not possess a firearm.

Americans are split when assessing existing federal regulations related to firearm ownership, with 44 per cent saying they are satisfied with these guidelines, and 44 per cent voicing dissatisfaction.

Republicans (52%), Independents (47%) and gun owners (54%) are more likely to say they are satisfied with the status quo, while Democrats (46%) and those who do not own a gun (47%) are more likely to be dissatisfied.

Across the country, 46 per cent of respondents call for stricter firearms laws, with the highest level of support from Democrats (62%), Independents (51%) and Americans who do not possess a firearm (55%). Conversely, Republicans and gun owners would prefer to have either looser regulations or the continuation of existing ones.

Seven-in-ten Americans hold no reservations about people who are eligible to own firearms having access to handguns (73%) and rifles or shotguns (72%). However, only three-in-ten respondents (30%) feel the same way about semi-automatic weapons, with a majority (61%) suggesting that only the police and other authorized persons should have access to them.

On the question of concealed carry—where states have enacted different regulations—half of respondents (51%) support the “shall-issue� notion of allowing citizens to carry a concealed weapon if they meet specific criteria laid out in the law. It is important to note that this prerogative is endorsed by a majority of Republicans (60%), Independents (53%) and gun owners (60%), as well as a plurality of Democrats (44%) and Americans who do not possess a firearm.

Analysis

The views of Americans on the Second Amendment have not gone through any significant fluctuations over the past two years. Democrats continue to call for stricter firearms regulations, while Republicans are mostly satisfied with the status quo.

Since January 2011, there has been a four-point increase in the proportion of Americans who endorse “shall-issue� jurisdiction to deal with concealed carry. These guidelines are now in place, albeit with different overall requirements, in three of every four American states.

Review our June 2010 and January 2011 surveys on firearms.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 17 to January 18, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,009 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Tories Lead, Liberals Gain But Remain in Third Place in Canada

The Conservative Party maintains the upper hand in Canada’s federal political scene, while the third-place Liberals have increased their numbers at the expense of the New Democratic Party (NDP), a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners (unchanged since August 2011) would support the governing Tories in the next federal election.

The official opposition New Democrats are second with 28 per cent (-3), followed by the Liberal Party with 22 per cent (+3), the Bloc Québécois with five per cent (-1), and the Green Party also with five per cent (+1).

The Conservatives maintain a high level of support in Alberta (65%) and are also the most popular party in Ontario (42%). The Liberals have now moved into second place in Canada’s most populous province (29%, with the NDP at 24%). The New Democrats have their best showing in British Columbia (40%, six points ahead of the Conservatives).

Among male voters, the Conservatives hold a 15-point advantage over the NDP (41% to 26%). The race is closer among women, where the Tories keep a five-point edge over the New Democrats (36% to 31%). Two-in-five Canadians aged 35-to-54 (42%) would vote for the Conservatives, along with 39 per cent of those over the age of 55. Tories and New Democrats are practically tied among voters aged 18-to-34.

The retention rates for the federal parties show a significant shift. The Liberals are now holding on to 82 per cent of the voters who supported them in the May 2011 election, second only to the governing Conservatives (86%). The NDP now has the second lowest retention rate in Canada (70%), with one-in-six 2011 NDP voters (15%) now choosing the Grits.

Approval Ratings and Momentum

Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper maintains the highest approval rating in the country at 43 per cent (+3), although his disapproval numbers increased by eight points to 49 per cent. The two interim leaders are splitting opinions as they carry on with their respective assignments, with Liberal Bob Rae at 35 per cent and New Democrat Nycole Turmel at 32 per cent. Green Party leader Elizabeth May holds the approval of 31 per cent of respondents, and recently selected Bloc Québécois leader Daniel Paillé is last with 11 per cent.

All five federal party leaders posted a negative momentum score, but Rae almost reached positive territory (-1), followed by May (-6), Turmel (-10) and Paillé (-15). It is important to note that the momentum score for Harper went from -10 in August to -22 this month.

Analysis

Despite the inherent difficulty of figuring out voting intention when two of the five main parties have not settled on full-time leaders, some observations are warranted. The Conservative base remains solid, as evidenced by the high levels of support among middle-aged and older Canadians, and a decisive advantage in Ontario. The approval rating for Harper increased slightly, but he posted the worst momentum score of all party leaders.

The New Democrats appear to be facing difficulties reconnecting with their voters after the death of former leader Jack Layton. The party has dropped to third place in Ontario and is seeing 15 per cent of their voters in 2011 flock towards the Liberal Party.

For the Grits, the survey provides some hope. Rae’s momentum score was the best in a month that featured the Liberal Biennial Convention and many media opportunities. The party’s voter retention rate is similar to that of the governing Tories. The Liberals have gained three points nationally, recovered markedly in Ontario and are now an option for some voters who are no longer convinced about the NDP.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From January 20 to January 21, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,000 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

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Election Matters: The New GOP Field and Obama's New Lows

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport and USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page assess the effect of the Iowa straw poll and Rick Perry's official entrance into the GOP race, as well as new lows in President Obama's job approval ratings.

Congressional Job Approval Ties Historic Low of 13%

Americans' frustration with Congress has reached historic levels, with 13% approving and 84% disapproving of the job it is doing, tying the low approval rating and establishing a new high disapproval rating by one percentage point. Congressional approval is down five points from last month.

Obama's Weekly Job Approval at 40%, Lowest of Administration

President Obama's job approval rating dropped to 40% during the week spanning Aug. 8-14, the lowest weekly average of his administration. Obama's three-day average fell to a new low of 39% for Aug. 11-13, marking the first time this average has been below 40% since he took office.

As Economic Confidence Drops, Obama Approval Fairly Stable

President Obama's job approval rating for the first 10 days of August is down 4 percentage points from the first week of July, representing a 9% decline. That is significantly less than the 19 point -- or 56% -- drop in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index over the same period.

Editor-in-Chief Insights: Voters' Anti-Incumbent Sentiment

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses the low percentage of registered voters who say most members of Congress deserve re-election.

Democrats Enjoy Slight Edge on 2012 Congressional Ballot

Gallup's first measure of the 2012 congressional elections shows Democrats with a slight lead over Republicans, 51% to 44%, among registered voters nationally -- better than they generally fared in 2010 but worse than in the prior two congressional cycles.

D.C., Hawaii Most Democratic, Utah Most Republican State in '11

Hawaii ranks as the most Democratic state in the United States in the first half of 2011, along with the District of Columbia. Utah is the most Republican state. Party affiliation in most states is similar to what Gallup measured in 2010, with only two states showing meaningful shifts.

Editor-in-Chief Insights: Guidance for the Debt Supercommittee

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses Americans' hopes for the supercommittee of lawmakers appointed to find bipartisan solutions to reduce the U.S. federal deficit.

Tea Party Sparks More Antipathy Than Passion

More Americans consider themselves strong opponents of the Tea Party movement than strong supporters, by 20% to 14%. Overall support for the Tea Party has dipped to 25%, a new low, and lower than the 29% average seen previously.

Americans Want New Debt Supercommittee to Compromise

Six in 10 Americans say members of the new bipartisan "supercommittee" mandated to find new ways of reducing the federal budget deficit should compromise, even if the agreement reached is one they personally disagree with. This includes a majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats.

Record-Low 21% Say Most in Congress Deserve Re-Election

A record-low 21% of registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election. That compares with 54% of voters saying their own member deserves re-election, and 47% who say President Barack Obama does. Obama now has a slight edge, 49% to 45%, over a generic Republican candidate in 2012 voting preferences.

Rick Perry in Strong Position if He Enters Race

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, reportedly soon to announce his decision to enter the presidential race, remains in a strong position relative to other candidates. Perry's Positive Intensity Score is the highest of any Republican tested, and significantly higher than that of presumptive GOP front-runner Mitt Romney.

Plenty of Common Ground Found in Abortion Debate

"Pro-choice" and "pro-life" Americans tend to back abortions needed to protect women's vital health and to support certain notification policies, and oppose late-term abortions. The two groups disagree most sharply about abortions in the first trimester, for financial reasons, and when the baby would be born impaired.

Obama Job Approval 50% or Higher in 16 States and D.C.

President Obama enjoyed approval of 50% or above in 16 states and the District of Columbia during the first half of this year, even as his national approval rating remained lower. His highest ratings were in D.C. (83%), Connecticut (60%), Maryland (59%), and Delaware (59%), and his lowest in Idaho (27%).

Editor-in-Chief Insights: Obama vs. Other Incumbents

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses how President Barack Obama's current approval rating compares with that of former presidents who also ran for re-election.

Tea Party Supporters Oppose Debt Agreement, 68% to 22%

Tea Party supporters overwhelmingly disapprove of the agreement reached by President Obama and Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling, by a 68% to 22% margin.

Editor-in-Chief Insights: Liberals Sticking With Obama

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport discusses liberals' and Democrats' approval ratings of President Obama in light of the contentious debate over how to handle the federal debt.

More Americans Oppose Than Favor Debt Ceiling Agreement

Americans are more likely to oppose than favor the agreement President Obama and Congress reached to raise the federal debt ceiling, by 46% to 39%. One in five Americans view it as a step forward in dealing with the debt situation, and the public is much more likely to think it will make the economy worse rather than better.

Republicans' Ratings of 2012 GOP Contenders Steady in July

Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney continue to generate both high recognition and favorable reactions among Republicans nationwide relative to other potential GOP candidates for 2012. While less well known, Rick Perry and Herman Cain are highly popular with those who know them.

GOP Voters Continue to Give Field Subpar Ratings

Amid a bruising primary campaign, Republicans remain unimpressed with their party’s presidential field. In fact, more Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say the GOP field is only fair or poor (52%) than did so in early January (44%).

By comparison, just 46% of Republican voters have positive opinions of the GOP field, according to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 26-29 among 1,006 adults, including 341 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. In early January, shortly before the New Hampshire primary, 51% gave the field excellent or good ratings while 44% rated the candidates collectively as only fair or poor.

That survey showed that GOP voters’ ratings of the field are far less positive than were opinions of the Republican field in 2008. At about this point four years ago, 68% of Republican and GOP-leaning voters rated the field as excellent or good. (See “GOP Voters Still Unenthused about Presidential Field,� Jan. 9, 2012.)

Who Understands Problems of Average Americans?

Separately, the survey, in partnership with The Washington Post, finds that far more voters say Barack Obama understand the problems of average Americans than say that about either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. More than half of all registered voters (55%) say Obama understands the problems of average Americans very or fairly well. About four-in-ten (41%) say he understands people’s problems not too well or not at all well.

Only about four-in-ten voters (39%) give Romney high marks for understanding the problems of average Americans; about the same percentage (36%) says Gingrich does very or fairly well in understanding people’s problems.

About half of independent voters (53%) rate Obama positively in understanding the problems of average Americans; only 38% and 37% of independents, respectively, give Romney and Gingrich positive ratings. Democratic voters overwhelmingly say that Obama understands the problems of average people (84%). Smaller majorities of GOP voters give Romney (61%) and Gingrich (60%) positive ratings.

Public Priorities: Deficit Rising, Terrorism Slipping

Overview

As the 2012 State of the Union approaches, the public continues to give the highest priority to economic issues. Fully 86% say that strengthening the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year, and 82% rate improving the job situation as a top priority. None of the other 20 issues tested in this annual survey rate as a top priority for more than 70% of Americans.

More generally, the public’s concerns rest more with domestic policy than at any point in the past 15 years; 81% say Obama should be focused on domestic policy, just 9% say foreign policy. In keeping with this, defending against terrorism and strengthening the military are given less priority today than over the course of the past decade.

Nonetheless, the public is keeping a wary eye on Iran. It is now seen as the country that represents the greatest danger to the U.S., and more Americans prioritize taking a firm stand against Iran over avoiding military conflict. And with respect to restructuring America’s national security policy, the public is evenly divided as to whether a smaller military can be just as effective as a larger one in facing future security challenges.

Shifting GOP Priorities

The new poll finds that the federal budget deficit stands out as the fastest growing policy priority for Americans, largely because of growing Republican concerns about the issue. In the national survey, conducted Jan. 11-16 among 1,502 adults, 69% rate reducing the budget deficit as a top priority – the most in any of the Pew Research Center’s annual policy priority updates going back to 1994.

The number of Republicans rating the budget deficit as a top priority has spiked to 84% from 68% a year ago and just 42% five years ago. Meanwhile Republicans are placing far less emphasis on terrorism, which was their top priority in every year between 2002 and 2008. Today 72% rate it as a top priority, down from 83% a year ago and 93% five years ago. By contrast, the emphasis Democrats and independents give to terrorism and the budget deficit has changed far less.

Parties Divide on Medicare, Health Care

Making the Social Security and Medicare systems financially sound continue to be top-tier issues for Americans, with 68% and 61% rating them as top priorities, respectively. There is a substantially larger partisan divide over Medicare, which Democrats view as higher priority than do Republicans, than over Social Security. Reducing health care costs remains one of the more divisive issues politically, as it was even before the recent battle over health care reform. Currently, 71% of Democrats rate it as a top priority, compared with just 49% of Republicans.

Energy and Environment

No issue divides partisans more than the importance of environmental protection – 58% of Democrats say it is a top priority, compared with just 27% of Republicans. Of the 22 items tested, environmental protection is one of the lowest GOP priorities, along with such issues as improving transportation infrastructure and campaign finance reform. Dealing with the nation’s energy problems, by contrast, is of equal importance to both Republicans (55% top priority) and Democrats (57%), though other recent surveys suggest that partisans have very different solutions in mind.

Since it was first tested on the annual policy priorities list in 2007, the share of Americans who view dealing with global warming as a top priority has slipped from 38% to 25%. Democrats (38%) are far more likely than Republicans (11%) to rate this as a top priority. But the decline has occurred across party lines: In 2007, 48% of Democrats rated dealing with global warming as a top priority, as did 23% of Republicans.

Money and Politics

Despite a recent focus on the issue of money in politics, including the role of Super PACs in the 2012 Republican primaries, the issue remains on the back burner for most Americans. Just 28% say reforming the campaign finance system is a top priority for the president and Congress in 2012, and it is one of the lowest ranked issues across party lines. Somewhat more (40%) say reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interest groups in Washington is a top priority. There has been little change in the public’s focus on either issue compared with previous years.

Declining Focus on Immigration

The share of Americans ranking illegal immigration as a top priority has fallen to 39% from 46% a year ago and 55% in 2007. This decline has occurred across party lines, with a notable drop among Republicans. In 2007, illegal immigration was the second-highest priority after terrorism for Republicans, with 69% rating it as a top priority. Today, 48% of Republicans rate it as a top priority, placing it behind 11 other priorities.

 

Tax Fairness a Low GOP Priority

About six-in-ten Americans (61%) say that making the tax system more fair should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year. It ranks among the top 10 issue priorities, well above items like immigration or the environment, and nearly on par with perennially top-tier issues like education (65% top priority). Democrats and independents rate this as a more critical issue than do Republicans, but half of Republicans say this should be a top priority in 2012. About two-thirds of Americans with household incomes under $75,000 rate this as a top priority, compared with about half of those earning $75,000 or more.

Iran a Top Concern

The recent tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and disputes between the U.S. and Iran in the Persian Gulf have garnered a good deal of public attention. Roughly four-in-ten (42%) say they have heard a lot about this, and 41% have heard a little. The percentage naming Iran as the country posing the greatest danger to the U.S. has more than doubled to 28% from 12% a year ago, and it now ranks slightly higher than China. Of those following the Iran situation, 54% say the U.S. should take a firm stand against Iran’s actions, while 39% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran.

On Afghanistan, the public favors removing U.S. troops as soon as possible by a wide 56% to 38% margin. Obama continues to receive highly favorable marks for his handling of Afghanistan, and more approve than disapprove of his handling of Iran as well. (For more, see “Obama: Weak Job Ratings, But Positive Personal Image� Jan. 19, 2012).

The State of the Union

As President Obama prepares for his third State of the Union speech Tuesday evening, 36% say this address will be more important than previous years’ speeches; 14% say it will be less important and 46% say it will be about as important as past State of the Union addresses. This is about the same balance of opinion offered before each of Obama’s previous two addresses.

Not surprisingly, far more Democrats (53%) than independents (29%) or Republicans (27%) view Obama’s speech as more important than usual. However, there is considerably more agreement that Obama should focus his energies on domestic issues, rather than foreign policy: Currently, 81% want the president to focus domestically, much more than said this prior to George W. Bush’s last two State of the Unions, in 2007 and 2008.

About the Survey

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 11-16, 2012 among a national sample of 1,502 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (902 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 600 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 293 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Section 2: Iran, Afghanistan, Military Policy, U.S. Global Image

In the wake of Iran’s recent threats to block the Strait of Hormuz and the tightening of economic sanctions by Western nations, most Americans say they have heard a lot (42%) or a little (41%) about the recent tensions. And Iran has now risen to the top of the nations the public says represent the greatest danger to the U.S.:  Nearly three-in-ten (28%) volunteer Iran when asked this question.

Among those who are aware of the recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program and disputes in the Persian Gulf, a majority say that it is more important to take a firm stand against Iranian actions (54%) than to avoid a military conflict with Iran (39%). More than seven-in-ten Republicans (72%) say taking a firm stand is more important, as do a smaller majority (52%) of independents.

Democrats are more evenly split: 45% say taking a firm stand, 47% say avoiding a military conflict. This reflects a division of opinion within Democrats; while 52% of conservative and moderate Democrats say taking a firm stand is more important, that falls to 36% among liberal Democrats.

There also is a sizable age gap in opinions about how to deal with Iran. Among those under 30 who have heard about recent U.S.-Iran tensions, 56% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran. Majorities in older age groups – including 61% of those 65 and older –say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iranian actions.

More Perceive Iran as Greatest Danger

When asked which country represents the greatest danger to the U.S., more Americans volunteer Iran (28%) than name any other country, though nearly as many (22%) name China. North Korea (8%), Iraq (7%) and Afghanistan (5%) are mentioned by smaller proportions of the public.

The percentage naming Iran has more than doubled since last January (from 12% then to 28% today); opinions today are on par with those in 2006 and 2007. Compared with last year, fewer now cite North Korea as the most dangerous nation (8% today, 18% then), while about as many say China as did so last January (22% today, 20% last year).

Republicans view Iran as the country that poses the greatest danger to the United States: 42% name Iran, compared with 23% who name China and 9% who say North Korea
By contrast, Iran and China are cited about equally by Democrats (24% and 20%, respectively) and independents (25% each).

Little Change in Views of Afghanistan

A majority (56%) says U.S. troops should be brought home from Afghanistan as soon as possible; 38% say troops should remain there until the situation has stabilized. Public views about the draw-down of U.S. forces are nearly identical to June, although this represented a stark shift from past years.

The public also continues to say the effort in Afghanistan is going at least fairly well (55%), with Republicans (62%) and Democrats (55%) about equally likely to say it is going well. Independents offer less positive assessments (51% very or fairly well, 42% less well).

There continue to be wide partisan differences over whether to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized or bring them home as soon as possible. A majority of Republicans (57%) say troops should remain in the country until the situation has stabilized. Two-thirds of Democrats (66%) and 56% of independents say troops should be removed as soon as possible. These patterns are little changed from June.

Can a Smaller Military Do The Job?

Following the Defense Department’s recent response to cuts to its budget, including plans to scale down the size of the armed forces, Americans are divided in their views about the effectiveness of a smaller military: 44% say a smaller military will reduce effectiveness, while 45% say a smaller military can be just as effective in facing future challenges.

Roughly two-thirds of Republicans (65%) say troop cuts will reduce effectiveness, compared with 46% of independents and just 31% of Democrats. There are substantial differences within partisan groups: While nearly three-quarters of liberal Democrats (73%) say a smaller military would be just as capable, conservative and moderate Democrats are more evenly split (39% less effective, 49% as effective).

Conversely, while moderate and liberal Republicans are split on the question, seven-in-ten conservative Republicans (70%) say downsizing military will diminish its effectiveness.

America’s Image Abroad

A 56% majority of Americans say the U.S. is less respected now than it was in the past. This is unchanged from November of 2009, and remains a more positive assessment of foreign impressions than throughout the later years of George W. Bush’s administration. At the same time, the percentage saying the U.S. is more respected than in the past has declined over the last two years (from 21% to 13%), with a comparable rise in the proportion saying the country is as respected as it had been (from 20% to 27%).

As was the case in 2009, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the U.S. is now less respected abroad (66% vs. 50%). But these evaluations shift with administrations; while George W. Bush was president, Democrats were far more likely to say the U.S. had lost respect. Today, 56% of independents say the U.S. is less respected than in the past, similar to the proportion who said this in 2009; fewer now say this than did so from 2004 to 2008.

Section 1: The Public’s Policy Priorities

With the nation’s economy still struggling and unemployment still high, economic concerns continue to top the public’s policy agenda for President Obama and Congress. More than eight-in-ten cite strengthening the economy (86%) and improving the job situation (82%) as top priorities. These numbers have fluctuated only slightly since the start of 2009.

Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) say protecting the nation from terrorism should be a top priority, not much different from one year ago (73%) but down from 80% at the start of 2010. Still, terrorism has been at or near the top of the annual priorities list since it was first included in 2002, shortly after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

Concern about the nation’s budget deficit, on the other hand, has been increasing in recent years. Currently, 69% say reducing the deficit is a top priority. In January 2009, only about half (53%) rated this as a top priority.  The proportion citing the deficit as a top priority is now on par with the number that said this in December 1994 (65%), during Bill Clinton’s second year in office.

Reducing the deficit or paying off the national debt became less of a priority in the late 1990s as the nation – and the federal government – benefited from a strong economy. Concern was also modest in the early years of the Bush administration, especially in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. But concern about deficits has increased steadily since 2009.

Still, strengthening entitlement programs continues to be important for most Americans: 68% say securing Social Security is a top priority, while 61% say this about the Medicare system. In both cases, those numbers are little changed in recent years. In addition, nearly two-thirds (65%) cite improving education as a top priority, again little changed in recent years. About six-in-ten cite making the tax system more fair (61%) or reducing health care costs (60%) as top priorities.

Dealing with illegal immigration remains a lower priority and concerns have fluctuated in recent years. Currently, 39% say dealing with illegal immigration should be a top priority, down from 46% in 2011; it stood at 40% in 2010. In 2007, a majority (55%) said dealing with illegal immigration should be a top priority.

A Spike in GOP Deficit Concerns

More than eight-in-ten Republicans (84%) say reducing the federal budget deficit is a top priority, up 16 points since last January and the highest percentage in a Pew Research Center survey.

During the Bush administration, at most only about half of Republicans viewed reducing the budget deficit as a top policy priority. In January 2009, shortly before George W. Bush left office, 51% of Republicans rated reducing the deficit as a top priority. That percentage jumped 17 points (to 68%) by January 2011 and has increased by about the same amount (16 points) in the last year alone.

Democrats’ concerns over the deficit also have risen in recent years, though less sharply than Republicans’. Currently, 66% of Democrats say reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up from 52% in January 2009.

Nonetheless, Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to rate the deficit as a top priority. It is often the case that members of the party out of power express greater concern over the deficit than do members of the party in control of the White House. Throughout most of the Bush administration, more Democrats than Republicans rated reducing the budget deficit (or paying off the national debt) as a top priority. In 1997 and 1998, during Bill Clinton’s second term, more Republicans than Democrats viewed these issues as top priorities.

Familiar Partisan Divides

There continue to be substantial partisan differences over other policy goals as well. Nearly six-in-ten Democrats (58%) say protecting the environment should be a top priority for the president and the Congress, compared with just 27% of Republicans and 40% of independents.

Democrats also are far more likely than Republicans to view improving the education system (28-point partisan gap), dealing with the problems of the poor and needy (27 points) and dealing with global warming (27 points) as top priorities. Nearly four-in-ten Democrats (38%) say dealing with global warming should be a top priority, compared with just 11% of Republicans and 21% of independents.

Republicans, on the other hand, are more likely than Democrats to say that reducing the budget deficit (18-point partisan gap) and dealing with moral breakdown in the country (11 points) are top priorities for the president and Congress.

Republicans are less likely to view illegal immigration as a top priority than did so last year and the gap with Democrats has narrowed. About half of Republicans (48%) view dealing with illegal immigration as a top policy priority, down from 61% in 2011. Among independents, the number saying this is a top priority also fell, from 47% to 37%. Democrats’ views are largely unchanged (36% today, 33% last year).

Nearly identical percentages of Republicans (72%) and Democrats (71%), along with 66% of independents, say that defending the country from future terrorist attacks should be a top priority for the president and Congress.

There was a wide partisan gap over the importance of this issue during much of the Bush administration. And as recently as last year, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to rate defending against future attacks as a top priority (83% vs. 72%).

Obama: Weak Job Ratings, But Positive Personal Image

Overview

Barack Obama begins his fourth year in office facing a struggling economy, an unhappy public, and a lower job approval rating than most of his recent predecessors at a comparable point in their presidencies. In fact, Obama’s job rating today is a bit more negative than it was in December: 48% disapprove of his performance as president while 44% approve.

George W. Bush began his reelection year with a 56% job approval rating; Bill Clinton’s approval rating was 50% in January 1996. Obama’s current mark is closer to George H. W. Bush’s in January 1992 (46% approved, 43% disapproved).

Obama continues to struggle among political independents: Just 37% of independents approve of the way he is handling his job as president while 56% disapprove. George H. W. Bush had a similar approval rating (39%). But Obama’s disapproval rating among independents is higher than Bush’s, and much higher than either Clinton’s or George W. Bush’s.

Nonetheless, Obama possesses political strengths at the start of his reelection year, notably a positive personal image. Large majorities say Obama stands up for his beliefs (75%), cares about people like them (61%) and is trustworthy (61%). And while perceptions of Obama’s leadership have declined over time, on balance more say he is a strong leader than disagree (52% vs. 45%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 11-16 among 1,502 adults, finds that Obama’s personal image is much stronger than GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney’s. Currently, 51% say they have a favorable opinion of Obama while 45% have an unfavorable view. Romney’s favorability with the public stands at just 31%, while his unfavorable rating is as high as Obama’s (45%). (For more on the GOP primary and general election, see “Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead,� Jan. 18, 2012).

The survey also finds that Michelle Obama remains broadly popular with the public. Currently 66% say they have a favorable opinion of Michelle Obama while just 21% have an unfavorable view. Favorable opinions of the first lady have declined only modestly – by 10 points – since peaking at 76% early in her first year in the White House. In contrast, Barack Obama’s personal favorability has fallen by 22 points (from 73% to 51%) during this period.

The public’s views of the legacy of the Obama presidency reflect his mixed job approval ratings. About as many say Obama will be an unsuccessful (32%) as a successful president (27%), with a plurality (39%) saying it is too soon to tell. Similarly, about equal percentages think the failures of the Obama administration will outweigh its accomplishments (44%) as say its accomplishments will outweigh its failures (43%). On both measures, Obama is seen less positively than George W. Bush was at about the same point in his first term.

As has been the case for much of his presidency, Obama receives much better job approval ratings for terrorism and international threats than he does for the economy, energy policy or the budget deficit. Obama’s approval rating for handling the threat of terrorism stands at 65%, 10 points higher than a year ago. His rating for terrorism today is nearly as high as it was just after the killing of Osama bin Laden last May (69%).

A majority of the public (56%) also approves of the way Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan; just 37% disapprove. His job rating on Afghanistan also turned much more positive following bin Laden’s death and remains positive today.

Nearly half (48%) approve of the way Obama is dealing with the situation in Iran; almost as many (41%) disapprove. And about as many approve (46%) as disapprove (45%) of the way Obama is handling the nation’s foreign policy.

However, Obama’s job ratings on major domestic issues – the economy and the federal budget deficit – remain abysmal. Just 38% approve of his handling of the economy while 59% disapprove. His rating on the budget deficit is equally negative (34% approve, 62% disapprove. The percentage disapproving of his handling of these issues has risen over the past year (by eight points and nine points, respectively).  In addition, for the first time in Obama’s presidency, significantly more disapprove (46%) than approve (36%) of his handling of energy policy. (This survey was conducted before the Obama administration’s recent decision on the Keystone XL oil pipeline.)

Other Findings

Few “Green Shoots� Evident. Public views about the economy remain quite negative. Just 11% say the nation’s economy is excellent or good, and only 16% say jobs are plentiful in their community. Still, more expect economic conditions to be better a year from now than did so in December (34% now, 28% then).

Congress at Record Low. Just 23% express favorable opinion of Congress, among the lowest measures ever in a Pew Research Center survey. House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are increasingly unpopular among members of their own parties.

Cooperation Not Conflict. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say GOP leaders should work with Obama, even if it means disappointing some Republican supporters. About the same percentage (59%) wants to see Obama compromise, even if that means disappointing some Democratic supporters.

Biden Down, Clinton Still Up. Joe Biden’s favorability rating has declined since the first year of the Obama administration. Just 38% view Biden favorably, down from 50% in November 2009. By contrast, 62% view Hillary Clinton favorably, largely unchanged over this period.

Obama’s Influences. Nearly seven-in-ten Republicans (69%) say Obama listens more to liberal Democrats than moderates in the party. Democrats, by contrast, increasingly see Obama being influenced by moderates – 58% of Democrats express this view, up from 44% in June 2010.

Section 1: Barack Obama’s Performance and Image

Barack Obama enters his fourth year in office with about as many Americans disapproving (48%) as approving (44%) of the job he is doing in office. A notable change over the past year is the president’s standing among independents. Currently, 56% of independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing in office, while just 37% approve. A year ago, independents were divided evenly (44% approve, 45% disapprove).

Obama is doing far worse among independents than his predecessors at the same point in his presidency. In January 2004, independents approved of the job George W. Bush was doing by a 52% to 34% margin, and 50% of independents approved of Bill Clinton’s job performance in January 1996. Even George H.W. Bush was in a stronger position among independents in January 1992 than Obama is today. In January 1992, Bush had a comparable 39% approval rating among independents, but just 45% disapproved, compared with the 56% who disapprove of Obama’s performance today.

Americans are divided in their assessments of Obama’s long-term achievements. While 43% believe that in the long run the administration’s accomplishments will outweigh its failures, about the same number (44%) believe the failures will outweigh the accomplishments. At the start of 2004, more saw the Bush administration’s accomplishments outweighing its failures by a 49% to 36% margin. After his reelection, this evaluation turned sharply negative, and by December of 2008 64% said the Bush administration’s failures would outweigh its accomplishments. 

On another measure, 32% predict that Obama will end up being an unsuccessful president while 27% predict he will be successful, and 39% say it is still too early to tell. While fewer now believe it is too early to judge than did so last year, the relatively even balance of opinion on Obama’s long term success is little changed. As George W. Bush entered his re-election year, more thought his presidency would be successful than unsuccessful by roughly two-to-one (39% vs. 20%, with 38% saying it was too early to tell).

Obama Doing Better on Foreign than Domestic Issues

Obama continues to get stronger ratings on foreign and security policy than on economic issues at home. While opinion remains mixed as to his overall foreign policy (46% approve, 45% disapprove), Obama receives widely positive marks for his handling of terrorism (65% approve) and Afghanistan (56% approve). Reviews of Obama’s Afghanistan policy, in particular, improved earlier this year after the killing of Osama bin Laden, and have remained positive since.

And with increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, slightly more approve (48%) than disapprove (41%) of how Obama is dealing with the situation. This represents a 6-point increase in approval on Iran since the question was last asked a year ago.

Although Obama’s foreign policy ratings are stable or improving, he has lost substantial ground on his handling of energy policy in just the past few months. Currently, just 36% of the public approves of how Obama is handling energy policy, while 46% disapprove. This is a reversal of the balance of opinion during much of 2010 and 2011. As recently as November, 44% approved of the job Obama was doing on energy, while 38% disapproved.
 
Two months ago, 69% of Democrats approved of the job Obama was doing on energy policy; that figure has dropped 13 points to 56%. There has been less change in opinions among independents (down six points) and Republicans (one point).

Obama gets better marks for his handling of the environment; about half the public (49%) approves of the job Obama is doing, while 36% disapproves. These figures are virtually unchanged from April, and there has been no loss of Democratic support on the environment,with 75% approving of Obama’s job performance on the issue.

Majorities continue to disapprove of the job Obama is doing handling the economy and the federal deficit. About six-in-ten disapprove of each. Disapproval on the deficit is up since November, from 57% to 62%.

Of the eight items tested, the economy and deficit have thelargest partisan gaps. Just 11% of Republicans approve of the job Obama isdoing with the economy, while 69% of Democrats do. Just 14% of Republicans approve of Obama’s handling of the deficit, compared with 63% of Democrats.

 

 

Little Change in Obama’s Personal Image

Obama continues to be widely viewed as a good communicator (78% say this phrase reflects their impression of him), someone who stands up for what he believes in (75%), warm and friendly (71%) and well-informed (69%).  Somewhat fewer view Obama as someone who cares about people like them (61%) and trustworthy (also 61%). These impressions have changed little over the past two years.
 

By contrast, a narrow majority (52%) views Obama as a strong leader and slightly fewer (46%) say he is able to get things done. Views of Obama as a strong leader fell in 2010, rebounded a bit in May of last year following the killing of Osama bin Laden, and declined again in August. The current measure is little changed from August.

The percentage saying Obama is able to get things done also declined in August – to 44% from 55% in May and 54% in January 2011. Obama’s current rating for effectiveness also has changed little since August.

As in the past, there are wide partisan differences in views of Obama’s personal traits, particularly in perceptions of his trustworthiness and leadership. Nonetheless, while Republicans are less likely than Democrats to view Obama positively on all dimensions, majorities of Republicans say Obama is a good communicator, stands up for what he believes in, is warm and friendly and well-informed.

Majorities of independents also view the president positively on nearly every trait, with two notable exceptions. Just 44% of independents say Obama is a strong leader while about the same percentage (41%) says that he is able to get things done.

Obama’s Ideology, Influences

Perceptions about Obama’s ideology are divided and strongly related to party affiliation. Overall about four-in-ten (43%) say that Obama is liberal, while only somewhat fewer (37%) say he is “middle of the road� ideologically. Far fewer (13%) describe him as conservative. This pattern is essentially unchanged since the beginning of his presidency.

However, views of where Obama stands differ greatly by party. Two-thirds of Republicans (67%) believe that Obama is liberal, while only 30% of Democrats agree. A plurality of Democrats (46%) characterize Obama as middle of the road. Equal numbers of independents see Obama as liberal or middle of the road (41% each), but this breakdown conceals the fact that 61% of independents who lean Republican view Obama as a liberal while a majority of Democratic-leaning independents (53%) see him as middle of the road.

These ideological perceptions coincide with opinions about which segment of the Democratic Party – the liberal members or the moderate members – Obama is listening to more. Overall the public is divided evenly on this question: 42% say he’s listening more to liberal Democrats, 41% say moderate Democrats.

Only about one-in-five Democrats (22%) believe that Obama is listening more to the liberal side of the party. That reflects an eleven point decline since June of 2010, when 33% said he was listening more to liberals in the party. Currently, 58% of Democrats think Obama is listening more to moderates in the party, up from 44% in 2010. Among Republicans, there has been little change in the majority view that Obama mostly listens to liberal Democrats.

Obama in a Word

When asked what one word best describes people’s impressions of Barack Obama, the most frequent responses are Good (24 mentions) Incompetent (21), Intelligent (19), Socialist (17), Honest (16), Trying (16) and Disappointing (15).

All of these words have been used in the past to describe the president. Mentions of some words have increased, however. For instance, in January 2010, six respondents used the word Disappointing to describe their impression of the president. Last year, nine respondents described him as Disappointing and this year 15 respondents used this word.

Some new words appear on this year’s list of one-word descriptions of Obama. Among positive descriptors, seven respondents describe Obama as Hardworking. Among negative words, Sucks appears for the first time; seven respondents used this word to describe their impression of the president.

Section 2: Views of Congress

As Congress returns for the 2012 session, the American public’s view of the institution is as negative as it has ever been in over 25 years of Pew Research Center surveys. Just 23% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of Congress, while 69% have an unfavorable view.
These opinions are little changed from August of last year when views of Congress turned sharply more negative in the midst of the debate over extending the nation’s debt ceiling.

There is virtually no partisan gap in ratings of Congress – 29% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Congress. Even fewer independents, just 19%, view Congress favorably.

Not only are views of Congress negative, but so too are views of the two majority leaders. Only 21% say they have a favorable view of John Boehner while nearly twice as many (40%) have an unfavorable view; 39% have no opinion or have not heard of him. The public’s opinion of Boehner has turned sharply more negative since March of last year when just 27% expressed an unfavorable view and as many (26%) had a favorable opinion of Boehner.

Similarly, Harry Reid also receives very negative ratings. Just 18% say they have a favorable opinion of Reid while about twice as many (38%) have an unfavorable opinion. These views have changed little since December 2010.

While there continues to be a partisan gap in views of Boehner, his unfavorable ratings have increased across the board. Currently, 36% of Republicans express a favorable view of Boehner while 28% view him unfavorably. The percent expressing an unfavorable view has increased 13 points since March of last year when Republicans viewed Boehner far more favorably than unfavorably.

Nearly half of Democrats (47%) say they have an unfavorable opinion of Boehner, up from 36% in March. Just 14% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him.

Independents view Boehner far more negatively now than they did last year, and nearly as critically as do Democrats. By a 43% to 19% margin more have an unfavorable opinion of Boehner than a favorable one. In March 2011, opinion among independents was divided (25% favorable, 27% unfavorable).

Harry Reid’s favorability among Democrats has dropped substantially over the past year. Currently, only 27% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Reid while nearly as many (24%) have an unfavorable view. In December 2010, far more viewed him positively than negatively (40% vs. 23%). Views of Reid are very negative among both Republicans and independents, and have changed little over the past year.

Public Continues to Want Compromise

Most Americans want Obama and Republican leaders in Washington to work together to get things done in the coming year. A majority (58%) says GOP leaders should try as best they can to work with Barack Obama to accomplish things, even if it means disappointing some Republican supporters. Similarly, 59% say Obama should try as best he can to work with GOP leaders to accomplish things, even if it means disappointing Democratic supporters.

But Republicans, particularly those who agree with the Tea Party, are opposed to compromise when it comes to their own political leaders. Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents continue to say that GOP leaders in Congress should stand up to Obama (55%) rather than work with him to accomplish things (35%). Similar to a year ago, Tea Party Republicans are the most likely to reject compromise. Republicans who agree with the Tea Party movement favor standing up to Obama on important issues by about a three-to-one margin (67% vs. 21%). By comparison, Republicans who disagree or have no opinion about the Tea Party are divided – 49% say GOP leaders should stand up to Obama while 43% say they should work with Obama.

Democrats are divided over what they want Obama to do. About as many Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Obama should work with Republicans in Congress (48%) as say he should stand up to them on important issues (44%). More moderate and conservative Democrats (53%) than liberal Democrats (41%) want Obama to work with Republicans in Congress.

Section 3: Views of Economic Conditions

From the public’s perspective, the economic news over the past year has been particular volatile. As recently as August, the Pew Research Center’s News Interest Index surveys found 67% saying they were hearing “mostly bad news� about the economy.  But the latest update earlier this month found only 30% saying the economic reports they were hearing were mostly bad news, while 60% said the economic news was a mix of good and bad, and 9% said the news was mostly good.

While what people are hearing about unemployment rates and economic growth month-to-month registers with them, it does not have an immediate impact on their overall economic assessments. For more than three years, roughly 90% of Americans have said the nation’s economy is in only fair or poor shape, with little variation around ups-and-downs in the economic news cycle.

Despite hearing some more positive reports in recent months, the American public enters 2012 with the same negative overall assessments. Most say the economy is in only fair (42%) or poor (47%) shape, with only a small minority (11%) offering a positive rating.

But the economic outlook of Americans has improved slightly over the past month.  Currently, 34% say they expect the economy to be in better shape a year from now, up from a 3-year low of 28% last month.  This improved outlook comes predominantly from Democrats, 51% of whom say they think the economy will pick up over the next year. Only around half as many Republicans (23%) and independents (29%) share this optimism.

Despite four consecutive months of dropping unemployment rates, Americans continue to see tough times on the job front.  Fully 78% say that jobs are difficult to find in their area, down only modestly from a decade high of 85% last March.  Just 16% say they think there are plenty of jobs available in their community.

Unlike other economic measures, where Democrats offer a more upbeat assessment than Republicans, Republicans and Democrats have virtually identical assessments of job availability: 21% in each party believe that there are plenty of jobs available. By contrast, independents are particularly skeptical about the job situation – only 10% believe there are plenty of jobs available these days.

Section 4: Favorability of Obamas, Clinton, Biden

Barack Obama’s favorability rating has slipped over the course of his first three years in office. But Michelle Obama continues to be viewed very positively. Two-thirds (66%) of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the first lady while just 21% have an unfavorable opinion. These views have changed little over the past year and are comparable to public evaluations when she became first lady roughly three years ago.

Currently, 51% say they have a favorable view of Barack Obama while 45% have an unfavorable view. Impressions of the president today are somewhat more negative than they were earlier this year, when he had a 58% favorability rating, but are similar to those he received on the eve of the 2010 midterm elections.

Nine-in-ten Democrats have a favorable view of the first lady, as do 61% of independents. Republicans are more divided: 49% have a favorable impression while 40% have an unfavorable view of the first lady.

Among Republicans there are strong differences in opinion by ideology. Moderate and liberal Republicans view Michelle Obama favorably by a 62% to 25% margin. Conservative Republicans are just as likely to view the first lady unfavorably (46%) as favorably (44%). Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party movement, just 38% view Michelle Obama favorably while 46% have an unfavorable opinion.

Michelle Obama is viewed more favorably by women than men (71% vs. 62%). She also receives higher favorability ratings among young people than among those 50 and older (71% vs. 62%). Nearly all of non-Hispanic blacks (95%) view her favorably, compared with 74% of Hispanics and 60% of non-Hispanic whites.

Although Barack Obama’s ratings are more negative than the first lady’s, the president remains very popular among many of the groups that were critical to his election in 2008: Democrats (86% favorable), liberals (79%), African Americans (92%) and Hispanics (64%). But among young people – who voted for him by a two-to-one margin in 2008 – Obama’s favorable rating is currently no higher than the national average (53%).

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton

Three years into Joe Biden’s term as vice president, the public expresses more mixed views of him than they did in his first year of office. Roughly as many say they have a favorable opinion of Biden (38%) as say they have an unfavorable opinion (41%). In November 2009, half (50%) expressed a favorable view of Biden while 29% viewed him unfavorably.

Biden’s favorable ratings have decreased across party lines. Currently, 64% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of the vice president, down from 77% in November 2009. The share of Republicans who have an unfavorable opinion of Biden has grown from 53% to 66% over the same time period.

Vice President Biden’s standing among independents has reversed over the past two years. In November 2009, more viewed him favorably than unfavorably by a 45% to 30% margin. Today, more view him unfavorably than favorably by almost exactly the same ratio (31% favorable, 43% unfavorable).

The public continues to view Hillary Clinton positively. Fully 62% have a favorable opinion of the current Secretary of State while half as many have an unfavorable opinion (31%). These numbers are little changed from a year ago, and Clinton has received positive favorability ratings for the past three years since she became Secretary of State. Both Democrats and independents overwhelmingly view her favorably – 82% and 60% respectively. Among Republicans, 41% view Clinton favorably and 52% view her unfavorably.

Taxes

Raise taxes on Americans with incomes over one million dollars a year? Yes 72% / No 24% (ABC News/Washington Post)

White House 2012

Romney 38% / Gingrich 24% / Santorum 18% / Paul 14% / Other 1% / Unsure 5% (ABC/Washington Post)

Random Samples

Economic Gains, Questions on Romney Boost Obama's Prospects for November ... How Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses ... 8 lessons from the Republican presidential race so far ...

President Obama Job Approval

RCP Average

Approve:	46.6%
Disapprove:	47.6%
Spread:	-1.0%

Generic Congressional Vote

RCP Average

Republican:	41.8%
Democrat:	44.3%
Spread:	+2.5%

Direction of Country

RCP Average

Right Direction:	29.6%
Wrong Track:	63.6%
Spread:	-34.0%

Congressional Job Approval

RCP Average

Approve:	13.2%
Disapprove:	82.4%
Spread:	-69.2%

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